A hypertension risk score for adults: a population-based cross-sectional study from Dubai Household Survey 2019.

Ibrahim Mahmoud; Nabil Sulaiman; Amal Hussein; Heba Mohammed; Wafa K Al Nakhi; Hamid Y Hussain; Gamal M Ibrahim
Abstract
To develop a risk score model for predicting hypertension specific to Dubai population in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to facilitate prevention and early intervention.A retrospective analysis of the Dubai Household Health Survey 2019 data was conducted. Demographic and physical parameters, as well as blood glucose levels, were included in the data. The risk factors for hypertension were identified using bivariate analysis. A risk score model was developed using enter method where all significant predictors of hypertension in bivariate analyses were entered in a single step with the primary outcome was hypertension status (yes/no). The model was validated internally by splitting the data into Emirati and non-Emirati populations.A total of 2533 subjects were studied. The significant risk factors for hypertension identified were being male, older age (≥40 years), education level, body mass index, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidaemia. The model showed a high discrimination ability between hypertensive and non-hypertensive individuals, with an area under the curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75-0.79), excellent sensitivity (81%; 95% CI 71.9-88.2) and moderate specificity (56%; 95% CI 45.7-65.9).The model developed by this study is simple, convenient and based on readily available demographic and medical characteristics. This risk score model could support initial hypertension screening and provide effective tool for targeted lifestyle counselling and prevention programs.
Journal EPIDEMIOLOGY AND HEALTH
ISSN 2092-7193
Published 08 Sep 2021
Volume
Issue
Pages e2021064
DOI 10.4178/epih.e2021064
Type Journal Article
Sponsorship