A metabolic profile of all-cause mortality risk identified in an observational study of 44,168 individuals.

Joris Deelen; Johannes Kettunen; Krista Fischer; Ashley van der Spek; Stella Trompet; Gabi Kastenmüller; Andy Boyd; Jonas Zierer; Erik B van den Akker; Mika Ala-Korpela; Najaf Amin; Ayse Demirkan; Mohsen Ghanbari; Diana van Heemst; M Arfan Ikram; Jan Bert van Klinken; Simon P Mooijaart; Annette Peters; Veikko Salomaa; Naveed Sattar; Tim D Spector; Henning Tiemeier; Aswin Verhoeven; Melanie Waldenberger; Peter Würtz; George Davey Smith; Andres Metspalu; Markus Perola; Cristina Menni; Johanna M Geleijnse; Fotios Drenos; Marian Beekman; J Wouter Jukema; Cornelia M van Duijn; P Eline Slagboom
Abstract
Predicting longer-term mortality risk requires collection of clinical data, which is often cumbersome. Therefore, we use a well-standardized metabolomics platform to identify metabolic predictors of long-term mortality in the circulation of 44,168 individuals (age at baseline 18-109), of whom 5512 died during follow-up. We apply a stepwise (forward-backward) procedure based on meta-analysis results and identify 14 circulating biomarkers independently associating with all-cause mortality. Overall, these associations are similar in men and women and across different age strata. We subsequently show that the prediction accuracy of 5- and 10-year mortality based on a model containing the identified biomarkers and sex (C-statistic = 0.837 and 0.830, respectively) is better than that of a model containing conventional risk factors for mortality (C-statistic = 0.772 and 0.790, respectively). The use of the identified metabolic profile as a predictor of mortality or surrogate endpoint in clinical studies needs further investigation.
Journal NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
ISSN 2041-1723
Published 20 Aug 2019
Volume 10
Issue 1
Pages 3346
DOI 10.1038/s41467-019-11311-9
Type Journal Article
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