AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to assess how physical activity predicts the development and progression of diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: This prospective study (follow-up time 6.4 ± 3.1 years) included 1,390 patients (48.5% men, mean age 37.0 ± 12.4 years, duration of diabetes 20.4 ± 12.3 years) participating in the nationwide multicentre Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy (FinnDiane) Study. Leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) was assessed using a validated self-report questionnaire. Renal status was defined according to standard clinical cut-off values for urinary AER. RESULTS: The total amount of LTPA was not associated with progression in renal status. For the intensity of LTPA, however, the 10 year cumulative progression rate was 24.0% (95% CI 18.8, 28.8), 13.5% (95% CI 10.3, 16.6) or 13.1% (95% CI 10.3%, 16.6%; p = 0.01) of the patients with low, moderate or high intensity LTPA. This pattern was similar to that for the development of de novo microalbuminuria. Corresponding progression rates for LTPA frequency of <1, 1-2 or >2 sessions/week was 24.7% (95% CI 18.3, 30.7), 14.7% (95% CI 10.2, 19.0) or 12.6% (95% CI 9.4, 15.7), respectively (p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This study demonstrates for the first time in a prospective setting the relationship between physical activity and the risk of diabetic nephropathy in patients with type 1 diabetes. The data suggest that physical activity, and in particular its intensity, may have an impact on the initiation and progression of diabetic nephropathy in type 1 diabetes.