Increasing aortic dilation increases the risk of aortic dissection. Nevertheless, dissection occurs at dimensions below guideline-directed cut-offs for prophylactic surgery. There is no current large-scale population imaging data assessing aortic dimensions before dissection. Patients within the National Echo Database of Australia (NEDA) were stratified according to absolute, height-indexed and body surface area (BSA)-indexed aortic dimensions. Fatal thoracic aortic dissections (ICD-10-AM code I79) were identified via linkage with the National Death Index. 524,994 individuals were assessed, comprising patients with normal aortic dimensions (n = 460,992), mild dilation (n = 53,402), moderate dilation (n = 10,029) and severe dilation (n = 572). 274,992 (52.4%) were male, with median age 64 years and median follow-up time 6.9 years. 899 fatal aortic dissections occurred (normal diameter = 610, mildly-dilated aorta = 215, moderately-dilated =53 and severely-dilated = 21). Using normal aortas as the reference population, odds of fatal dissection increased with aortic diameter (mild = OR 3.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.61-3.56; moderate = OR 4.0, 95% CI 3.02-5.30; severe = OR 28.72, 95% CI 18.44-44.72). Due to the much larger number of patients without severe aortic dilation, 97.7% of fatal aortic dissections occurred in non-severely dilated aortas. Following sensitivity analysis, severe aortic dilation was responsible for at most 24.4% of fatal aortic dissections. Results were robust for absolute, height-indexed or BSA-indexed aortic measurements. Although severe aortic dilatation is associated with a near-thirty-fold increase in fatal dissection, severely dilated aortas are implicated in only 2.3-24.4% of fatal dissections. This highlights the 'aortic paradox' and limitations of current guidelines. Future studies should seek to refine risk predictors in patients without severe aortic dilation.